Match context and storyline
The Champions League qualifying tie returns to Zagreb with Dinamo Zagreb hosting Thun at Stadion Maksimir on 28/07/2026. The tone heading into this second-leg clash is electric: Dinamo arrive unbeaten and in a rich vein of form, while Thun have the sting of a 3-1 win fresh in their legs from the Swiss Super League but remain inconsistent overall. The recent meeting between the two sides ended in a 1-1 draw, a reminder that Thun can cause problems, yet the balance of evidence points toward the Croatian champions carrying momentum and quality into this fixture.
Form, momentum and tactical cues
Dinamo Zagreb’s run reads like a side rediscovering its sharpness: across the latest ten outings they have avoided defeat entirely, compiling seven wins and three draws. Their recent results include emphatic victories and a dominant goalscoring performance earlier in July, while their attacking metrics show a higher attacking volume than Thun — averaging around 20 total shots with a sizeable share coming inside the box and six shots on target recorded in recent aggregated data. Thun, by contrast, have been up and down: they celebrated a convincing 3-1 triumph over Luzern on 25 July but their form summary across the same sample shows more draws and losses. Their attacking numbers are respectable, yet the balance of dangerous attacks and total attacks favors Dinamo.
The first-leg 1-1 endline underlines that Thun can mix it up, but the bookies’ response is significant: home victory prices are short, reflecting a strong 75% implied probability for a Dinamo win. Stadion Maksimir’s capacity and home setting also swing the narrative in favor of the hosts — stadium familiarity, winning rhythm and attacking intent combine to create a clear favorite. Miha Zajc’s standout performance in the previous tie for Dinamo is a reminder the hosts have match-winners who can tilt a tight second leg.
What to expect in the 90 minutes
Expect Dinamo to press for control from the outset, pushing attacks into Thun’s defensive third and leveraging their superior shots on target volume. Thun are likely to adopt a mix of caution and counter-threat, seeking to exploit transitions and set-piece moments; their recent high corner averages hint at a willingness to attack from wide and dead-ball situations. Given Dinamo’s unbeaten trajectory and the margin bookies afford them, the match should lean toward a home-controlled game with opportunities at both ends — though the weight of form suggests the decisive edge lies with Zagreb.
Betting suggestion: Back Dinamo Zagreb to win (1X2). The home side’s unbeaten run, superior attacking metrics and the short market price make the straight home victory the clearest value play on the 1X2 market. Keep stakes conservative given low odds; for readers interested in how to frame stakes responsibly, the piece on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets is a solid primer, and remember to control emotions when sizing bets by reading How to have emotional control when placing bets?
