Edgeley Park drama set for a decisive night
Stockport County welcome Stevenage to Edgeley Park on 13/05/2026 for the second leg of their Promotion Play-offs semi-final, and the stage is primed for a tight, nervy affair. The first leg in Stevenage finished 1-0 to County, a slender advantage that gives Stockport the edge but not the comfort of a cushion. With a capacity crowd of 10,841 expected at Hardcastle Road, home support will be a real factor as Stockport look to close out progress to the final on familiar turf.
Recent form and what the numbers tell us
Both teams arrive with momentum. Stockport’s recent run has been a mixed bag but leans positive — five wins in the last ten with a tendency to produce open games at home (Stockport’s home goals total of 38 versus 26 conceded shows a team that can both score and be breached). Stevenage have also been competitive away from home, with an away goals tally of 22, and carry a respectable record of clean sheets (19 overall) that suggests they can frustrate opponents when organised.
Statistically, Stockport offer more in volume: higher shots average (13.13 to Stevenage’s 9.96) and more shots inside the box, indicating sustained pressure when playing at Edgeley Park. The over 2.5 data also favours Stockport’s matches (around 59.6% of their games), pointing to a greater likelihood of multiple-goal affairs in games they influence. Meanwhile, Stevenage’s away numbers show they can be resolute but are vulnerable to sustained home pressure — they conceded 33 away goals this season, a red flag when facing a team that creates more chances.
The first leg’s best-player ratings — Ben Osborn for Stockport and J. Roberts for Stevenage — underline how single performances can swing these knockout ties. Expect tactical caution from both sides, but also flashes of individual quality that could determine the tie.
How to approach the market
Given Stockport’s home advantage, superior chance creation and the away-leg victory already banked, bookmakers have made the home side favourites with a Market Winner price of 1.90. The draw and away prices sit notably higher, reflecting the risk Stevenage must take to overturn the deficit. For context on choosing the right market and how to size your stakes around these scenarios, our primer on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets is a useful read. Also consider the macro factors that can skew markets unexpectedly, as explained in How the interference of billionaire investors in football clubs messes with the betting.
Betting suggestion (1X2): Back Stockport County to win. The home side have the advantage of both the aggregate lead and the underlying numbers — more shots, more chances inside the box, and the comfort of playing at Edgeley Park. Take the Home win at the available 1.90 price with a conservative stake; the tie context and the first-leg result make this the most balanced 1X2 option.
